Lamentations on Chemistry

20 June, 2008. Ruthenium opened US$300/toz at BASF today.  This obscure member of the PGM family has been subject to extreme price volatility over the last 2 years. From September, 2006 to mid -February, 2007. Ru ramped in price from US$168/toz to an all time high price of US$870/toz.  Stiff demand from the aviation and electronics sectors as well as the usual uncertainty in mining output was responsible for this price explosion.

One of the major sources of Ruthenium lies in South Africa.  Platinum Group Metal (PGM) mining occurs in the Bushveld Complex in the northern part of the country. According to Implats, this complex is a saucer shaped body formed by successive injections of magma into a large chamber. The chamber contents then underwent a cooling phase which resulted in fractional crystallization which partitioned mineral species according to solubility and melt temperature. 

Within the Bushveld Complex are concentrations of PGMs occuring in substructures called reefs. A particularly rich body of ore is the Merensky reef. Another is the UG2 reef. It makes for intersting reading and a worthwhile diversion for the curious chemist.

14 March, 2008. As the deepening US gravity well continues to tug at the recession asteriod that is looming ever larger in the sky, we see a steady line of investors boarding Platinum Group Metal (PGM) investment vehicles for immediate launch off this doomed planet. 

Monday and friday opening EIB prices over the week of 3/10/08 thru 3/14/08.

Silver-  US$19.70/toz;  US$20.77/toz.

Gold-  US$971.55/toz;  US$1,0005.86/toz

Palladium-  US$470.00/toz;  US$516.00/toz

Platinum-  US$1,960.00/toz;  US$2,110.00/toz

The geology of PGM deposits is quite interesting. There are numerous resources detailing the Bushveld Igneous Province (or Complex) in South Africa. Check it out.

The Platinum Group Metals (PGM’s) continue to trend upwards.  Last friday 0n the EIB rhodium opened at US$9,050.00/toz. Rh remains in strong technical demand and prices are propped by a great many overlapping factors. Uncertainties in the mining business in South Africa buoy uncertainty among investors. Recent electrical distribution shortfalls and blackouts have interrupted production as have mine floods, labor disputes, and a shortage of experienced miners and managers.

Automotive pollution catalytic converters dominate the demand for platinum and rhodium. As demand for Pt and Rh continues to grow, look for companies to switch to palladium in key applications.  Russia holds a strong position in Pd inventories. As demand for Pd rises, look for Russia to exercise its muscle.

As Au and Pt prices continue to climb, look for jewelry demand for these metals to taper off.  Asian demand for these metals is substantial. Eventually, jewelry prices will temper demand for gold and platinum.  Meanwhile, interest grows in North American PGM resources.

We synthetikkers live in the gilded age of NMR. This analytical method is so fast and so rich in quantitative and structural details that we may forget what it’s like to produce materials that aren’t amenable to NMR rigged for liquid samples and H, C, F, B, Si, and P.

I’ve been busy making metal oxides and various complexes for sale that lend themselves to a very short list of analytical methods. When you make compounds for sale you have a responsibility to provide an unambiguous assay of purity for the lot.  Compounds that are poorly soluble, paramagnetic, or lack NMR active nuclei can be problematic for NMR assay in a production setting. Yeah yeah, I know- get a solid state NMR. Well, we don’t have one and it ain’t gonna happen in my lifetime. Meanwhile, I have 200 g of new product that needs to get certed and into inventory.

Lately I have been taking cues from catalog company web-sites and exploring other methodologies. Complexometric titrations for metals assay, AA, gravimetric AgX for halides, Karl Fischer for water, Loss On Drying (LOD) for volatiles (water, solvents), combustion analysis (C, H, & N), Glow Discharge MS (the Big Hammer) for refractory metal oxides, XRD for anything that could be in the xtal database, melting points, TGA, and I’m turning back to FTIR. 

I haven’t been using FTIR in a quantitative way, just looking for a “Conforms to Structure” result. But nonetheless, in the preparation of new compounds for the product list it is a life saver. I can convince myself that the desired ligands are there and use other methods to try to quantitate their wt %.

I always feel better if we can come up with 3 methods that corroborate the composition. You don’t always have to come up with methods that are on the specification either. It is reasonable to report results on a Certificate of Analysis that are “Report Only” and show general conformance rather than some percentage quantity.  Examples might be appearance, color, or even an NMR spectrum.

I have only recently begun to use XRD and am a mere novice in its intracies. I have sent solid solutions where components that I knew to be there were not detectable. I have also sent samples that came back with % compositions of several xtal phases. For characterization of production lots, it has utility in the detection of certain components. Amorphous phases and random, solid solutions are a blind spot for the method. On the other hand, there is ca one half million compounds in the database so it can detect xtal phases down to ~ 1%.

I have learned an expensive lesson in regard to ICP MS. The method is quite blind or unreliable with certain elements. Sulfur and halides in particular. A sample can be loaded with sulfur (often as sulfate) and the assay will come back with a wildly low value. An ICPMS assay of rare earth metal oxides can support a claim for 99.99 % total rare earth oxides. A GDMS of the same sample may show that it is 99.8x % in metals and even lower if you include halides, sulfur, and phosphorus. 

To be fair to purveyors of ICP MS, it is quite sensitive but standards at the lower limit of detection may not be available. Sub ppm numbers without an explanation of conditions and error are to be taken with skepticism.  Everything looks like a dogs lunch once you get down to the sub ppm level.

Platinum prices opened friday morning, 1/24/08, on the EIB at US$1665/toz, up $71/toz from the previous day.  News of mine flooding in South Africa and power outages due to 210 mm of rain have kicked prices of Pt up and the stock price of Anglo Platinum dropped a reported 7.58 %.  AngloPlat says that the Amandelbult mine is operating at 25 % capacity and expects to be back on line in 9-12 weeks. The shortfall in Y2008 production from this mine is estimated to be 50,000 to 70,000 toz.

Ruthenium has been floating in a price trough recently. Friday, 24 Jan. 2008,  it opened at US$420/toz on the EIB. 

Last week was a busy week for gold. The week opened at US$873.38/toz and by friday the opening price was US$920.46/toz.

Watching the market take on water like a leaky Liberian freighter, I’m wondering about the wisdom leaving my assets in the 401(k) plan.  It’s a fact that the market goes up and the market goes down. The question is, what kind of games do the fund managers play as share prices fall? Do they sell-off many low priced shares for fewer shares of stronger stocks? If so, how does that affect your recovery as the market strengthens? I don’t know. Sounds like its time to understand this better.

Gold has been steadily increasing in value since at least June of 03 (near the limit of my horizon). Since stock prices started to nose downward in early 4Q2007, the slope of gold price growth increased. The inverse price trend with investor confidence in stocks is normal behaviour for gold.

But looking at the upward trend in gold prices this decade, I’m left to wonder if there isn’t some fundamental change happening. If the price is rising due to global demand, who is out there steadily driving up prices? Are there big players who are in the know?  And what are the consequences for individuals?