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Prologue: I want to give my bona fides on appreciation of the “US space program.” For as long as I can remember I have been a space enthusiast. I followed projects Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, X-15, Space Shuttle, ISS, Voyager’s 1 & 2, Cassini and others in real time. Even though space publicists mention scientific research, they never go into more than the very least they can get away with for fear of MEGO- My Eyes Glaze Over. To its credit NASA posts annual lists of research papers with links disclosing research results from R&D conducted in the orbital environment. Here is such a list. Much of the research might seem arcane but it is important to realize that the practical value is likely to come later as others incorporate it into their subsequent research and product development. This is how R&D works.
A few words about Elon Musk’s plans on moving mankind to Mars. As everyone knows, Musk is actively engaged in developing space craft large enough, numerous enough and powerful enough to take a great many people to Mars. His stated dream for humanity is to transport a large number of people to the red planet to establish a permanent settlement- a sort of Earth 2.0 for humans. There is even fanciful talk of terraforming Mars for more convenient and safer occupation. This is a colossal job, even for a small world like Mars.
All energy produced and consumed on Mars will be electrical via nuclear energy, solar, or maybe wind (??) generation. Combustion as we know it is out due to the absence of combustible materials and abundant oxygen. Solar power generation will be limited by reduced solar energy shining on Mars and by the practical problem of dust accumulation. Thermoelectric generation from a Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG) has been the solution used on many Mars landers and deep space probes.
The best radioisotopes for RTG are alpha emitters. Alpha particles are +2 charged helium nuclei which cause a large amount of ionization over a short distance as it crams its way through matter, stopping in a short distance. Because they lose energy over short distances even in air, alphas require very little shielding, unlike beta and especially gamma radiation.
Betas themselves are easily shielded, but as they decelerate in matter, they can generate radiation called braking radiation, or bremsstrahlung x-rays, which are more penetrating. This is how x-rays are generated in an x-ray tube. Electrons impacting a target like copper generates x-rays. The effect is more pronounced in higher atomic number (high Z) elements like copper, but in low Z materials like plexiglass x-ray generation is much reduced. Consequently, beta emitters are commonly shielded with plexiglass.
The main downside to RTG is the low efficiency in converting thermal energy to electrical energy via the Seebeck effect– about 3-5 % currently according to most sources. So, for every 100 watts of thermal energy production, only 3-5 watts of electrical energy are available. This puts pressure on the supply of scarce radioisotopes.
On the good side of RTGs, they are stable, reliable and long lasting. Waste heat can be used to provide warmth for proper operating temperature in the craft or facility. The Mars lander Curiosity uses 4.8 kg of 238PuO2 to produce 100 watts of electrical power.
The deal with the devil you have to make with RTG power generation is that the best heat generating isotopes in terms of power density (watts/g) also have the shortest half-lives. For instance, 210-Po has a high power density of 140 watts/g but a half-life of only 0.38 years. It undergoes a 5.6 MeV alpha decay directly to stable 206-Pb, emitting a gamma only once in 100,000 alpha decays. Gamma emission poses shielding weight penalties and radiation hazards both in manufacture and operation in space. Even with no humans around, there is still the matter of electronic components that are sensitive to radiation. The more commonly used alpha emitter 238-Pu has a lower power density of 0.54 watts/g but a reasonably lengthy half-life of 87.7 years and minimal shielding requirements.
The background radiation environment in space by itself demands that shielding and radiation hardened electronics be used. Any added radiation from an on-board RTG only compounds the problem. The amount of shielding any given material provides is measured in half-thickness, not “full thickness” and is dependent on the type and energy of the particle. This value is the thickness of a specific material required to reduce the intensity to half of the incident radiation, not the total radiation emerging from the shielding material. This is because scattering can occur within the shielding material contributing to or minimizing the total flux. The point of this is that shielding only attenuates radiation to acceptable levels and not to zero.
238-Pu is a synthetic isotope that must be isolated from other Pu isotopes as well as a dog’s lunch of other elements in spent nuclear fuel or be selectively synthesized by nuclear chemistry. Isotopic separation of 238-Pu from other plutonium isotopes is difficult, slow and not the preferred method of producing it at scale. Nuclear chemistry that provides exclusively 238-Pu from a single transformation as with like 237-Np, offers a more productive route. This allows good old regular, valence-electron chemistry to effect the separation needed.
238-Pu is produced by neutron irradiation of 237-Np producing transient 238-Np with its 2-day half-life and subsequent beta decay to the 238-Pu. Chemical separation of the plutonium from residual neptunium is straightforward but, like all chemistry with radioisotopes, burdened by the need for radiation shielding for safety.
238-Pu is presently in short supply in the US. The Savannah River Site was producing “bulk” 238-Pu but was shut down in 1988. After closing of Savannah, the US purchased 238-Pu from Russia but the word is that Russia is short on it as well. In recent years other sites have been scaling up production where “scaling up” means producing in the several hundred grams to a few kilograms in a campaign.
In the RTG, plutonium is not used in the metallic state but as the oxide which is a ceramic or refractory** material like most heavy metal oxides. The plutonium is oxidized to 238PuO2, pelletized and clad in corrosion resistant iridium. According to NASA, this refractory form of plutonium is resistant to an accidental release in a variety of accident scenarios including Earth reentry and rocket propellant fires.
The Seebeck effect is not the only means of producing electrical energy from radioactive decay heat. The free piston Stirling Radioisotope Generator can use decay heat to drive a piston in a Stirling engine using helium gas as the working fluid. Waste heat is dumped at the cooled end of the engine and the linear reciprocating motion of the free piston is used to generate electrical power in the adjacent alternator.
The electric alternator is similar to the electromagnetic flashlight on the market. It works on the ordinary induction principle buy moving a magnet through a coil. You shake the flashlight to recharge it, causing the internal magnet to move back and forth through a coil. Shake it for 1 minute to get 4 minutes of light. The Stirling radioisotope free piston linear alternator operating in this manner can produce 4 times the electrical power of an RGT.
In 2020 workers Wong and Wilson at the NASA Glenn Research Center reported that they were able to operate a Stirling radioisotope power convertor for 14 years maintenance-free.
Off we go!
Some thought will be needed on screening potential migrants to Mars for age, various physical ailments, dental health, genetic predispositions, sociability and underlying psychological issues. A manic crew member could drive fellow crew members to a murderous rage over time. Such screening has been done with astronauts for a long time. I wonder if choosing to migrate to Mars isn’t a sign of some precarious psychological condition in itself, after all the likelihood of a return to Earth may be slim. It would resemble going to jail in some ways.
Over time, the masses of new Martians living in Muskville will have to decide on what to do with themselves beyond exploratory geology, meteorology and engineering studies of Martian accommodations. Mars is a big, arid and frigid desert with no breathable air. But it may offer a few choices for recreation such as spacesuit hiking and shuffleboard. The outdoor choices will be limited by the Muskvillager’s battery, heating and oxygen supplies as well as ability to get around.
Eventually, all manner of psychological, social and physical maladies will manifest in Muskville and will have to be dealt with. People will spontaneously form cliques eventually giving us-vs-them issues requiring mediation. Unless the New Martian settlers are sterilized, pregnancy is a near certainty. An entire book could be written on complications this would bring. The alternative is to limit the inhabitants to a single gender or to gay individuals- most likely a non-starter.
Death on Mars means that your remains will need to rest somewhere outside the facility. A fresh body will freeze stiff in the Martian cold and remain that way indefinitely. Digging a grave will require energy expenditure and digging tools. Cremation will consume considerable power and may be out of reach.
Something like a hospital with medical supplies and trained staff will have to be present. The few physicians who might be present will be required to be generalists with exceptional diagnostic and surgical skills. A full medicine cabinet to cover a range of maladies will be needed to support this.
As Muskvillagers age out, the range of health problems will widen and require care. Diabetes, cancer, dementia etc. will fade in and people will age and die. This will leave job openings and duties behind which will have to be filled.
In general, the conveniences of modern living will be seriously cut short for the New Martians for a long time. A supply line with Earth that can withstand politics, business failure and war must be maintained.
If I were planning a migration to Mars, I’d worry about maintenance and spare parts for everything. Mechanical things will break. Perhaps an orange-colored Home Depot module will hitched to the back of the lander and sent along with a load of duct tape, assorted bolts and screws, sealant, O-rings, hand tools and cleaning supplies. Don’t forget a few bags of peanut M&Ms.
Wherein I jump to conclusions.
The human capacity for folly knows no bound. Woven in with folly are variable education, emotional inputs and diverse belief systems. The migrants will carry religious and political predispositions that they may or may not reveal in screening for candidates. Friends and relatives on Earth will sicken, age and eventually die but access to a return trip to earth may be severely restricted or effectively impossible.
On reflection, establishing even a modest Mars base will involve large energy inputs. Getting to the surface of Mars with enough reserve propellant for the return trip, the establishment of shelter, oxygen and water supplies are the priorities. Beyond just surviving day-to-day, there is interest in the possibility of putting Martian minerals to use as building materials or even water and oxygen production.
There are indications of frozen water on the surface of Mars in certain limited locations. Where there is water there is the possibility of using electric power to produce oxygen. The hydrogen produced may have utility somewhere but its use for combustion seems unlikely due to the corresponding amount of oxygen needed.
Anywhere you have silicates, aluminates and metal oxides, you have oxygen. Silicon and aluminum both have a strong affinity for oxygen and as such represent a thermodynamic well requiring steep energy inputs for oxygen extraction from minerals. Even worse, many silicates and aluminates are oligomers, chain polymers or network polymers that render them insoluble solids with high melting points. Silicates, aluminates and metal oxides are all comprised of a central atom- silicon, aluminum, or a metal -that are electron deficient by virtue of being connected to oxygen anions. In order to liberate oxide from oxidized silicon, aluminum or a metal, something negatively charged needs to come in and displace the oxide species. Metal oxides like the iron oxides are very often refractory requiring high temperatures to react. Then there is a long list of oxyanions like sulfate, phosphate, hydroxide, chromate, ferrates, molybdates, titanates, tungstates, manganates, etc., each with metal cations. After these there are the polyoxyanions …
The point is that there are a wide variety of oxide species to be found in rock and soil with differing properties. In the end, a negatively charged oxide anion must be oxidized to produce molecular oxygen.
A thermodynamic well resides in a substance where atoms come together to form strong chemical bonds and release a great deal of heat into the surroundings. The same amount of energy that was released is minimally what would be needed to drive the reaction in the reverse direction. This bond forming heat energy is dispersed amongst the large number of surrounding molecules. The heat evolved in forming the original bond produces a high temperature locally, but as it spreads out each succeeding layer of neighboring molecules gets a smaller and smaller share of the original energy. As the bond forming energy release is spread over more and more molecules, the resulting temperature rise of the succeeding layers get smaller and smaller.
Newton’s Law of Cooling says that rate of heat flow is directly proportional to the temperature difference between contacting objects. The greater the temperature difference, the more useful work (heat and work are both energy) that can be done. Large temperature differences transfer large quantities of energy. Low temperature differences result in less energy transferred. As the heat spreads to the surroundings it produces decreasing temperatures as the heat conducts away and the ability to do work diminishes. This constrains the recovery of waste heat.
The diffusion of energy in this manner is what entropy is about- the irreversible loss of energy to the surroundings. If you are tempted to talk about entropy, consider that it has to be consistent with its unit of measure: Entropy, S, equals energy per degree Kelvin or Joules/Kelvin (J/K).
In order to get molecular oxygen from minerals it will require a great deal of energy expenditure per kilogram of oxygen. Not only that but specialized equipment and chemicals. Any oxygen produced will have to purified and compressed into cylinders.
MOXIE
The extraction of molecular oxygen from the abundant carbon dioxide atmosphere seems desirable and has actually been put to the test on Mars. A prototype molecular oxygen generator called MOXIE went to Mars on the Perseverance rover and successfully produced oxygen from carbon dioxide beginning in 2021.
The MOXIE oxygen generator is a solid oxide electrolysis device that operates at 800 oC and uses a stack of scandia stabilized zirconia ceramic electrolyte. An excellent source of information on MOXIE can be found at this Science site.
About 10 % yttria (Y2O3) or scandia (Sc2O3) will prevent the zirconia (Zr2O4) electrolyte from undergoing a phase change that causes the ceramic to fail at high temperature. From personal experience I know that scandia is chosen as a better diluent for zirconia because it allows lower temperature operation than yttria by perhaps 200 oC. The lower operating temperature with scandia allows for better sealing of the cell. High temperature seals are very problematic at these operating temperatures.
The MOXIE electrolysis cell uses a nickel coated cathode for reduction of the CO2, a ceramic zirconia/scandia electrolyte that allows oxygen anions to selectively pass through, and an anode where the anions are oxidized and combine to form O2 where it is captured. MOXIE produced O2 at a rate of 6-8 g/hr while on Mars. The process vents carbon monoxide waste as well as unreacted CO2 at the cathode where it is vented.
A limiting factor in operating MOXIE is the operating voltage across the cathode and anode. Two kinds of chemistry can occur within MOXIE. Carbon dioxide can be reduced to form oxide or carbon, depending on the flow rate of CO2 and the operating voltage. The Nernst voltage, VN, is the minimum voltage necessary to do the chemistry. At about 1.1 volts the cell will reduce CO waste biproduct to carbon on the cathode. This is called “coking”. Carbon formation on the cathode impedes the function of the cathode and reduces the output of the cell. The voltage for coking varies very little with flow rate.
The VN for the desired reduction of CO2 to oxide (O–) and CO at a low flow rate is around 1.0 volts and at high flow rates drops to about 0.95 volts or just a bit lower. So, the “normal” operating voltage range then would be between 1.0 and 1.1 volts to prevent fouling the cathode with coke. The operating voltage window seems a bit narrow. It was found that while a stable operating voltage could be supplied, the resistance of the cell was very sensitive to temperature making stable operation a bit delicate.
Pyrochemistry
Extraction of oxygen from lunar mineral samples has been done previously (below). All of the mineral samples were iron rich and gave yields of 2 to 5 % in the form of water. The samples were from Apollo 17 and consisted of ilmenite (FeTiO3), basalt, soil and volcanic glass. The process uses hydrogen at a reaction temperature of 1050 oC producing H2O. Presumably the water vapor is mixed with hydrogen during and after the reaction. The water can be isolated by simple condensation in the presence of the hydrogen.
Reduction of Ilmenite: FeTiO3 + H2 — > Fe + TiO2 + H2O
by Carlton C. Allen
Lockheed Martin Engineering and Sciences Co.
To use the process described above, high temperature is required for the hydrogen reduction in a refractory vessel. This requires considerable electrical energy input to heat the thermal mass of the vessel and the regolith. Spent material will have to be removed and discarded. Perhaps the heat can be recovered for general facility heating. Oh yes, the recovered water will need to be electrolyzed to produce molecular oxygen and hydrogen. This process will use plenty of electric power as well as for the compressors to store the O2 in pressure bottles. In principle the hydrogen can be recovered for reuse in the hydrogenation vessel.
The above process applied to ilmenite produces metallic iron and titanium dioxide, a white pigment. FYI, ilmenite is a common raw material for high purity titanium dioxide production. It is high purity because the titanium dioxide is prepared from titanium tetrachloride which is isolated by distillation from the ore matrix after fluidized bed chlorination.
The first Martian settlers will have to bring every single thing necessary to live on the planet. That includes launching it and landing it on the surface intact. Landing on Mars is tricky because the atmosphere is too thin to provide much aerobraking. The Martian surface pressure is the same as the Earth’s at 80,000 ft altitude and the temperatures are frigid.
Let’s say we successfully land a crew and set up housekeeping. What are they going to do with their time? These missions are supposed to last about 2 years including a lengthy transit time. They can collect various kinds of data on Martian geology and weather and send it back to earth. Somebody will get publications out of it. Eventually, somebody will decide that there must be other things to do besides geology and meteorology. Naturally there will be much ongoing R&D on the pragmatics of living on a remote Martian outpost in a crowded pressure can.
Eventually, the question of what non-research living will look like. Shelter will need construction from some kind of materials. Every new section of shelter will need to be airtight and equipped with environmental controls, sanitation and power. Bulkheads between sections will need to be in place to isolate calamities.
Support staff will be needed one day to provide critical services and perform facilities maintenance. This would also include medical staff, emergency care, food & sanitary support, electronics and IT support and administrative staff for the inevitable paperwork. The lander will need rocket engineers for upkeep and repairs to assure launch reliability for the return trip. Do rockets exist that can sit for a year fueled and then reliably launch and insert into a trajectory back to Earth? There are many, many problems to be resolved in many areas.
After some period of time, a crime will happen on Mars. It could be petty theft, assault or even murder. Someone will have to be appointed to look after law and order. An astronaut-sheriff, sergeant at arms or just the po-leese. What kind of due process will be available to a suspect in a Martian colony? Guns will be too risky to have in the settlement given that a bullet could pass right through a bad guy and rip through the structure creating a leak.
On earth, doing independent research requires getting academic credentials, finding a position, grading exams for goddammed freshman chemistry, executing an R&D program, and then going home every day to refresh and have a social life. Imbedded in all of this we have courtships, marriage, mortgages, babies and divorce. We manage the ten thousand details of modern life and interact with our families and social networks. We mourn those we lose and celebrate our achievements. We enjoy good health and suffer injury and sickness and eventual death.
On Mars, the equation will be a bit different. Many of the above life elements will apply, but from a great distance. Instead, we will be confined to a small space with an unchanging group of fellow crew members. The distance to Earth from Mars is constantly changing and there will be a period absent any communication when the earth is behind the sun.
Eventually, research on living in space or on Mars will wind down to minutae if it hasn’t already and people will have to find other things to do. The funding for living off-world will have to switch from R&D to … what, a lifestyle?
I wonder if there will ever be room for commerce and jobs on Mars. I can see running a canteen or restaurant for profit but stocking them with earth supplies will be prohibitively expensive and infrequent.
What joy can there be living in a pressure can on a hostile planet? What few hermit-astronauts there may be might find it acceptable if they never need a dentist. Perhaps dentures or implants should be routinely fitted to all visitors to Mars.
The second stage of Mars exploration will have to ramp up progress on sustainability. Using Martian soil as raw materials for construction and for crops. As the Martian population rises beyond the first few rotating crews, what will the immigrants do with their time in can-living on a hostile world? Would going to Mars to lead an utterly confined life with nothing to do be an attractive draw?
Epilog
I think that settling on Mars is not such a great idea overall and specifically would be wasteful of resources that should be applied to the rehabilitation of the biosphere on our home world. It would somewhat resemble living on the Amundson-Scott Station on the south pole but without the benefits of breathable air or supplies regularly shipped in. Further, the lack of radiation shielding on the surface of Mars will offer 40-50 times the background radiation as on Earth, not counting the occasional storm of angry solar protons the sun flings out now and then.
** NASA does not use the terms “ceramic or refractory” in its description of the 238-Pu heat source. This is my choice of words.
I would reproduce some memorable text from Carl Sagan’s book The Pale Blue Dot, but that would be a copyright violation. Instead, I’ll chime in and echo his intent. That would be for all of us to pause occasionally to reflect on our tiny spherical paradise amidst the barren expanses of the universe. Earth continues to harbor life because it can. The right distance from an average star for liquid water, the planetary magnetic field protecting the atmosphere from being stripped away, the right combination of chemical elements for the ignition and propagation of life, and the long-term climate that allowed life to survive.
In 1989 Carl Sagan requested that an image of Earth be taken from a great distance even though the scientific value was nil. After some internal haggling, the administrator of NASA, Richard Truly, interceded and the imaging was approved. In 1990, the decision was made to allot time to image the Earth just before the camera Vidicon tube was scheduled to be switched off to conserve energy. Just 60 images were taken and stored on an onboard tape recorder until they were later relayed to Earth between March and May, 1990. The signal was received by the Deep Space Network after 5 1/2 hours of transit time.
Just looking at the image without any concern given to what is happening there at present, the Pale Blue Dot appears unremarkable. On the cosmic scale, it is just a tiny ball of wet rock. Yet with the right elements, compounds and plenty of time this bit of rock spawned sentient beings allowing the universe to become self-aware.
With all of the conflict and tension on Earth, someone has to stand up for the Earth’s biosphere. No matter what people do, nukes and all, planet Earth will remain in orbit spinning about its axis. It is civilization and the web of life -the carbon-based parts- that are serious risk. It is the birthright of each creature to share in the fruits of the earth. Politics and economics must adapt to a healthy and sustaining biosphere, not the other way around.
With the indecisive wars in Korea, Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan, the US has been served many slices of humble pie. Yet, are we learning? Presently we are drawn deeper into the bottomless pit of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. We have hitched our wagon to an Israel that pushed out the inhabitants of a piece of someone else’s land and colonized it. It is an undeniable historical fact. It should surprise no one that 2 million people now forcibly concentrated into a small patch of unproductive land and are militarily, politically and economically isolated are deeply resentful with their lot in life. As they have done many times in the past, the Palestinians have pushed back violently but this time with the help of others either directly or by proxy. The whole thing is further complicated by religious zeal on the part of both sides. Both claim to be doing God’s work, but to different ends. Magical thinking enforced by guns.
Elsewhere on the Pale Blue Dot, Putin’s savage invasion of Ukraine has thus far brought Russia only death and humiliation, though outwardly Putin postures himself as unworried. He is in tight control of a nation that has been under tight control for most of its history. Putin’s conventional military has surprised many by its brittle collapse in the invasion of Ukraine. As with the Soviet regime before him, much of his power rests only on the sandy pedestal of propaganda and the large bureaucracy to monitor or punish everyone. Putin’s real strength is his nuclear arsenal and his expressed willingness to use it.
The last time the Russian populace rose up to successfully overthrow tyranny was the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. Tsar Nicholas II was overthrown, murdered and replaced with a new type of totalitarian regime- The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Over time the USSR was able to modernize the state into a spacefaring, nuclear power but always retained and refined its authoritarian grip on its people.
Meanwhile in the west, a hornet’s nest of anger in the US has been awakened by a single charismatic and malignant narcissist who has attracted a dedicated following of the vocally disenfranchised. While his stunningly bad conduct should be obvious to anyone older than 12, no amount of pettiness, lies and over the top behavior seems to detract from his popularity. It has been said that he validates what his supporters believe. If that is true, then Trump is just the tip of a terrible iceberg.
Many 20th century dictatorships in history have been led by a charismatic idealist who understood the dark zeitgeist. Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler among others have risen to power and directed brutal attacks on whom they chose, sometimes driven by greed for power and other times by utopian fantasies. While Stalin didn’t author the Bolshevik revolution as Lenin did, he set the high-water mark for murder and cruelty in Russia. As bad as these actors were, all somehow avoided the assassin’s bullet during their heyday. One little piece of lead could have disrupted the timeline of terror each journeyed. Civilization does not have a provision that encourages this, though.
For crying out loud, people. Get a grip on how rare and special the Earth’s biosphere is. If there is another wonderous place like Earth, we are unaware of it and may never become aware. The earth is to be treasured.
As expected, New Hampshire Republicans rallied for their Golden Calf yesterday. Naturally, media people are using this to boldly predict the future. I’ve had to abandon NPR because they are serving wall-to-wall election coverage as though nothing else has happened. Despite the years of legal actions against the Orange Jesus, his popularity endures and Republican politicians and candidates continue to rally around him, hoping some of magic rubs off on them.
In interviews, Trumpsters confidently say that things were better during his presidency than under Biden’s despite what the numbers say about the economy at present. Even though inflation has dropped from 9.1 % to 3.2 % over the last year according to the AP, many consumers apparently expect prices to come down as well. Are the Trumpsters really upset about the economy or are they just angry that he lost the 2020 election?
Reducing prices is not something that business people will do to make life easier for people. What industry will be the first to reduce their prices willingly because it is a “nice idea?” Prices are always set to what the customer is willing to pay. A common nightmare of a business person is that they may have left money at the table during a negotiation or a sale. Businesses charge as much as they can all the time. People who leave money at the table are not the people who rise into the thin air of the C-suite of business.
During the pandemic, supply chain interruptions helped trigger inflation. Businesses ratcheted up their prices to grow or maintain their margins. Many businesses had to raise their prices because their costs had risen, but not evenly across the board. Why waste a good opportunity to raise prices if others are doing it? For essentials, consumers soon adapted to it because they had little choice. Strangely, the economy has shown unexpected vigor during this inflationary period. Some products like pickup trucks and real estate, however, are suffering badly.
Along comes the Federal Reserve to slay the dragon of inflation. They pulled their one big tool out of its sheath for staunching inflation- raising interest rates. And so they did with success. The down-side is that it hurts those seeking a mortgage or other loans due to increased interest rates.
Another effect of the pandemic is the continuing trend of employees working from home. According to one source, the 1Q23 vacancy rate for NYC office space was 22.2 %. Remote work activity has caused businesses to reconsider the size of the office space they are leasing. Many are opting not to automatically renew their leases in favor of leveraging better terms or outright downsizing their space requirements. The new workforce shift has had a negative effect on surrounding businesses who rely on the daily flood of office workers to buy lunch and shop. It also has a big effect on the owners of office buildings who likely had business models and loans relying on higher occupancy rates. The knock-on effect is that the banks who made the commercial loans to the office building owners are beginning to see an increase in loan defaults. Commercial borrowers also face significantly higher interest rates than they started out with. News reports are very pessimistic for a reprieve in the near term.
The term that was coined for this is the urban “doom loop.” Reduced office occupancy leads to reduced tax revenue for municipalities who supply services like transit, police and street maintenance. But I don’t want to spoil it- Google “urban doom loop.”
Back to the Golden Calf.
I would offer that there is a portion of the grand American bell curve that probably shouldn’t be left in charge of a vast international economic and nuclear superpower wielding a military machine the likes of which the world has never seen before. Further, I would offer that just possibly many of the followers of #45 are comfortably squatting on that side of the bell curve.
As I see it, the Golden Calf getting back into office will adversely swerve the fate of Europe, the Balkan and the Baltic states into direct conflict with an expanding Russian Empire. Putin is obviously trying to reestablish and reenergize the reach of the former Soviet Union. He has little care for the lives of Russian soldiers as they fight and die on the battlefield, and even less for those who defy his wishes. They are expendable in the grand scheme of a Great Russian Empire of Tsar Putin.
The State of Ukraine traces back to October of 1917 when the Bolsheviks tried to capture Kyiv and failed. By January of 1918 the Ukranian revolutionary parliament declared the formation of Ukrainian People’s Republic. After much conflict, Ukraine was made part of the USSR.
In the 1930’s there was the Holodomor, or the “Great Ukrainian Famine” of 1932-33 with continued mass killing and exile of Ukrainian Kulaks to the east for the rest of the decade. The collectivization forced on Ukraine was brutal. Many thousands of Ukrainians were exiled to the east and disappeared. As Hitler invaded Poland and continued with Operation Barbarossa to Moscow, his plan to exterminate Jews went with him. The wholesale slaughter of Jews in Poland and Ukraine wasn’t limited to the concentration camps. Villages were captured by the Nazis and Jewish citizens were marched by the many tens of thousands into the woods and executed by a bullet to the head, falling into pits where they would be buried. No age or gender was spared. Hitler gave orders to Himmler to carry out the Final Solution in eastern Europe and Russia and he did with a vengeance.
A large scale international concern is with Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine. Russia has a long history of conflict with Ukraine starting after the Bolshevik Revolution. Putin does not recognize their sovereignty and further claims that there is no Ukraine, only Russia. He seeks to establish the boundaries of the former Soviet Union and Ukraine is the first step. To allow Putin to conquer Ukraine will enable him to go after the Baltic states, the Balkans and Poland along with their manpower and resources to fortify the depleted Russian military-industrial complex.
Trump has a record of stating his disinterest in protecting the European Union and remaining in NATO. American retreat from the EU and NATO would only serve to telegraph to Putin that the US will not interfere with further Russian conquests. A massive Russian dictatorship butted up against western Europe will not lead to an enduring peace. A Russian dictatorship the size of the USSR will be no friend of the western powers.
An America that withdraws from international affairs is an America in steep decline. After all that we have accomplished and learned, under Trump and his ilk we will step down from our international platform and slink away into some imaginary Libertarian Southern Baptist utopia with the inmates running the asylum. No thank you.
The election of Trump has a ghastly downside for western civilization that is largely kept quiet by the popular media. In their desire to portray fairness, they tend to avoid topics like this for fear of the accusation of bias..
Unfortunately, when someone utters something in conversation that is wildly divergent from reason, they make the claim in mere seconds. A proper rebuttal, though, can take paragraphs of content to dredge up facts and compile reasoning to refute the reckless assertion. Spouting nonsense is much easier than attempting to convincingly invalidate it. Many people avoid contradicting someone with doubtful assertions because either they don’t want to be disrespectful or they’re afraid to push the matter.
As a result, fools sermonizing nonsense often wander off with a false sense of victory because nobody pushed back. We all have friends and family that somehow went into the weeds and picked up some wild ideas.
One way to deal with fools spouting nonsense is to turn around and leave. Other times a gentle change of the subject can lead someone to a better topic. To expect someone to have an epiphany about some closely held yet nonsensical notion leading to a higher plane of awareness standing right there is unreasonable. Most of us fools will stand our ground and argue. Yes, that includes me. Despite being in a hole, I also have been known to keep digging the hole, though not so much anymore.
Wherein I digress.
College is a great place to pick up debating skills. My research group in grad school was a quite assertive and international group of people. Today most of them are either full professors or VPs of R&D at some pharma company. Since I decided against pharma early on, I was thankfully able to avoid the east coast. At that time there wasn’t much non-biopharma elsewhere. To thrive, I need to be around some interesting topography like here in the west.
In grad school I learned to pitch back as much guff as I received. By assertive I don’t mean quarrelsome, usually. I mean debate. Knowledge and reasoning had to be there, as it should be. Most of these “energetic discussions” were at the chalkboard where we preposed reaction mechanisms by pushing electrons. Fermented beverages were often present. Since it was a natural product and stereochemistry group, we had to be able to render our chalk structures in pseudo “3-D.” Our research professor was a master at this. He could draw complicated alkaloids and diastereomeric transition states with chalk to show stereochemical mechanisms as well as anyone.
Back to the BS people spew.
Back to the topic of the post. I’ve lost much of the desire I once had to debate people who espouse outright stupidity. An example would be a MAGA follower. My working theory is that once someone has tasted the Trump Koolaid, they are likely lost for good. They’ll live their lives out as Trumpers and go to their graves that way. Some Trumpers do have a revelation and recover, but most don’t.
Attempting to educate MAGA people for the sake of truth and accuracy is a waste of time. Is this a pessimistic view of life? Yes.
As wondrous as our physical and chemical senses are, they are severely constrained in a few fundamental ways. Our vision is limited to our retinal response to a narrow, 1-octave wide band of electromagnetic radiation. As it happens, this band of light can be absorbed non-destructively by or stimulate change in the outer, valence level of inorganic and organic molecules. Electrons can be promoted to higher energy levels and in doing so temporarily store potential energy which can then do work on features at the molecular level. In the retina, this stimulates a polarization wave that propagates along the nervous system.
Owing to the constraints of the optics of the band of light we can sense, we cannot see atoms or molecules with the naked eye. This is because the wavelengths in the narrow range of visible light are larger than objects at the atomic scale. Instead, we perceive matter as a continuous mass of material with no indication of atomic scale structures. No void can be seen between the nucleus and the electrons. For the overwhelming majority of human history, we had no notion of atoms and molecules.
Democritus (ca 460-370 BCE) famously asserted that there exist only atoms and vacuum, everything else is opinion. The link provides more detail. The point is that atoms and vacuum were proposed more than 2000 years ago in Greece. The words of Democritus have survived over time but I’ll hazard a guess that the words were not influential in the rise of modern atomic theory in the 19th and 20th centuries. A good question for another day.
In all chemistry, energy is added to the valence level of a molecule as electronic, rotational, vibrational or translational energy.
Thumbnail Sketch of the Interaction of Light and Matter
Radio waves are a band of long wavelength that can interact with electrically conductive materials. Electromagnetic waves having a wavelength greater than 1 meter are considered to be radio waves. As a radio wave encounters a conductor, the oscillating electric field of the wave causes charge to oscillate in the conductor and at a rate matching the radio wave. Radio waves, whether in electronic devices or in space, are formed by the acceleration of charged particles. Recall that when you cause a charged particle to change it’s direction of motion, e.g., by a magnetic field, it is undergoing an acceleration. It is useful to know that radio waves are non-ionizing.
Microwave energy causes dipolar molecules to rotate back and forth by torsion as the waves pass. This rotational energy can be transferred to translational and vibrational energy through collisions, raising the temperature. The molecule does not need fully separated charges like a zwitterion, but molecules may have less than full charge on one side and a less than a full opposite charge on the other side, like water. This is a dipole. Water has a strong dipole and is susceptible to absorbing energy from microwaves.
Infrared radiation causes individual chemical bonds and entire frameworks to vibrate in specific ways. The Wikipedia link for this topic is quite good. When a molecule absorbs heat energy, it is partitioned into a variety of vibrational modes which can bleed off into other energy modes, raising the temperature.
Ultraviolet light is energetic enough to break chemical bonds into a pair of “radicals”- single valence electron species. These radicals are exceedingly reactive over their very short lifetime and may or may not collapse back into the original bond. Instead they can diffuse away and react with features that are not normally reactive, leading to the alteration of other molecules. UV light is very disruptive to biomolecules.
X-rays are more energetic than ultraviolet light and can cause destructive ionization of molecules along their path. They can dislodge inner electrons leaving an inner shell vacancy. An outer shell electron can collapse into the inner vacancy and release energy that can eject a valence level electron, called an Auger electron. This alters the atom by ionization and giving a change in reactivity. X-rays are also produced by the deceleration of electrons against a solid like copper though lighter targets can also produce x-rays.
Gamma radiation originates from atomic nuclei and their energy transitions. They are the highest energy form of electromagnetic radiation and cover a broad range of energies at <0.01 nanometer wavelengths. Many radioactive elements emit only gamma rays as a result of their nuclei being in an unstable state. Some nuclei can emit an alpha or beta particle resulting in an unstable nucleus that will then emit a gamma to relax.
The wavelengths of radio waves are too long and too weak to interact with biomolecules. Some radio waves come from the synchrotron effect where charged particles like electrons will corkscrew around magnetic field lines of a planet and release energy in the form of radio waves. In the case of Jupiter and it’s moon Io, a stream moving charged particles are accelerated by a magnetic field, the particles will emit mainly in the 10 to 40 MHz (decametric) range of radio waves as they spiral around the magnetic field lines into Jupiter. Jupiter’s volcanic moon Io sends charged particles into the planet’s polar regions where the magnetic field lines bunch up. This leaves a visible trace of borealis-like gas that glows. That radiation is emitted in the shape of a conical surface. It is only detectable here when the cone sweeps past earth as Io obits Jupiter.
NASA/GSFC/Jay Friedlander
An atomic nucleus can absorb or emit gamma rays. For instance the gamma emitter Antimony-124 emits a 1.7 MeV gamma that can be absorbed by Beryllium-9 which photodisintegrates into a 24 kiloelectron volt neutron and two stable He-4 nuclei. This nuclear reaction can be used for surveying for beryllium ore deposits by detecting neutron backscatter.
The purpose of this cooks tour of the electromagnetic spectrum is to suggest that visible light band is uniquely suited to interact with matter just enough to induce valence-level chemical changes. The change can be charge separation or an alteration in the composition or shape of a molecule. The changes may be reversible or not.
Ok, done with that.
So, not all electromagnetic radiation plays nicely or at all with any given chemical substance. The narrow visible band of light is uniquely well suited to interact non-destructively, mostly, with living things. Chemistry is about the behavior of the outer, valence level of electrons around and between atoms and molecules.
The retinas in our eyes send signals to the brain continuously that result in a very curious thing- our perception of color registers instead of just a grey scale. Not just the colors of the rainbow, but also more nuanced perceptions like pastels, brown and in their many textures- all with binocular vision!
The constraints on human vision depend on the chemical composition and anatomical structures of the retina as well as the construction of the brain. As the description of the various bands of electromagnetic radiation suggest, there is much to the universe that our senses cannot detect. We do not directly view the radio, microwave, infrared, ultraviolet, x-ray or gamma ray views of the universe.
Our daily understanding of the universe is mostly framed by what we can see with the unique biochemistry and anatomy of the retina. It’s not a bad thing with its limitations, but for an appreciation of the true scope of the universe we would have to find ways to view in the other electromagnetic radiation bands. And, we do. With radio telescopes and satellites that pickup x-ray and UV energy to give images. Now with JWST, we’re peering deeper into the universe as revealed by infrared energy. The longer wavelengths of infrared can pass through clouds of dust particles that previously blocked our view in the optical spectrum.
The structures of the atom and molecules are characterized by the very large fraction of “empty” space they contain. Electrons seem to be point charges with no measurable size. Yet they have mass, spin and the same magnitude of charge but opposite that of the much heavier proton. And, the proton is not even a fundamental particle but a composite particle. It’s like a bag with three hard objects in it.
The universe is wildly different from what our senses present to us. All matter1 is made of mostly empty space. What we see as color doesn’t exist outside of our brains. Our sensation of smell is the same. Cold is not a thing. It is just the absence of heat energy. Finally, our consciousness exists only in our brains. It is a natural phenomenon that is highly confined, self-aware and may be imaged through its electrical activity or F-19 MRI with fluorinated tracers. This wondrous thing is happening on the pale blue dot floating in the vastness of empty space. So far, we can’t find anywhere else in the observable universe where this occurs.
It is good to remember that we search for extraterrestrial intelligence to a large extent with radio telescopes. On earth, the use of radio communication is a very recent thing, tracing back to the beginning of radio in 1886 in the laboratory of Professor Heinrich Rudolf Hertz at the University of Karlsruhe. Hertz would generate a spark and find that another spark would occur separately.
By 1894, Marconi was working on his scheme to produce wireless transmissions over long distances. The wider development of radio transmissions/receiving is well documented, and the reader can find a rabbit hole into its history here.
In order for the discovery of radio transmission to occur, several other things must have been developed first. The discovery of electricity had to precede the development of devices to generate stable sources of electricity on demand and with sufficient power. Then there is the matter of DC vs AC. Some minimal awareness of Coulombs, voltage, current, electromagnetism, conductors and insulators, and wire manufacturing is necessary to build induction coils for spark generation.
James Clerk Maxwell had developed a series of equations before the discovery of wireless transmission by Hertz. Hertz was very familiar with the work of Maxwell from his PhD studies and post doc under Kirchhoff and Helmholtz. Hertz was well prepared in regard to the theory of electromagnetism and was asking the right questions that guided his experimental work.
Radio transmission came to be after a period of study and experimentation by people like Marconi, Tesla and many others who had curiosity, resources and drive to advance the technology. As the field of electronics grew, so did the field of radio transmission. It’s not enough to build a transmitter- a receiver was required as well. Transmitter power and receiver sensitivity were the pragmatics of the day.
This was how we did it on earth. It was facilitated by the combined use of our brains, limbs, opposable thumbs and grasping hands. Also, an interest in novelty and ingenuity during this period of the industrial revolution was popular. While people who lived 10,000 years ago could certainly have pulled it off as well as we did, the knowledge base necessary for even dreaming up the concepts was not present and wouldn’t be for thousands of years. The material science, mathematics, understanding of physics, and maybe even cultures that prized curiosity and invention were not yet in place.
In order for extraterrestrials reaching out to send radio signals that Earthlings could detect, they would have to develop enough technology to broadcast (and receive) powerful radio transmissions. If you consider every single mechanical and electrical component necessary for this, each will have had to result from a long line of previous developmental work. Materials of construction like electrical conductors could only arise from the previous development of mining, smelting and refining as a prelude to conductor fabrication to produce a way of moving electrical current around.
Radio transmission requires electrical power generation and at least some distribution. None of this could have been in place without the necessary materials of construction, mechanical and electrical components already in place. Most of the materials would have to have been mined and smelted previously. Electrical power generators need to be energized by something else to provide electricity. On earth we use coal or natural gas to produce steam that drives generator turbines to make electricity. Also, there is nuclear and hydroelectric power. ETs would face a similar problem for the generation of electrical power.
If you follow the timeline leading to every single component of an operating radio transmitter, you’ll see that it requires the application of other technologies and materials. It seems as though a radio transmission from extraterrestrial home planets need something like an industrial base to get started.
What if there were intelligent extraterrestrials who were not anatomically suited to constructing radio transmitters for their own Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence or just for local use? Perhaps they are +very intelligent but not far along enough yet to have developed radio. Or, what if they were just disinterested in radio? What if they used radio for a short window in time and have been using something else not detectable from earth, like what we do with optical cable? The point is that we would never hear them by radio, yet they would be there.
Surely there is a non-zero probability of this happening. This dearth of signal may be so prevalent that we will conclude that we are alone in our local region of space. Perhaps funding will be cut and we’ll quit looking. We can take that finding to fuel our sadness of being alone in the cosmos. Or we could use it to appreciate just how unique life is and take better care of ourselves.
Instead of buying into Elon Musk’s vision of colonizing Mars and somehow terraforming it, why don’t we terraform Earth back into a place where the biosphere is more stable and pollution is pushed back to some lower level? A utopian vision for sure, but it also has a non-zero probability of happening.
1. Not including dark matter, if it really exists. I remain skeptical.
The news media are devoting virtually all of their bandwidth to the savage Hamas-Israeli sh*t storm in Gaza and especially on the status of the Israeli hostages. After some digging, it is possible to learn that many Islamic militia groups in the region have been attempting to strike at Israel from far outside of the Israeli border. This is being coordinated by Iran.
Iran Update, November 26, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)
The thing that I’m learning is that the historical facts aren’t so hard to understand, it’s just a large hairball of intertwined details. The emotional depths, however, are deep and abiding. It long ago morphed into a battle between certain Islamic fundamentalists and the “invaders”. The momentum to begin the State of Israel began well before 1948. The formation and settlement of Israel, Zionism, was a planned movement to first colonize the area of present-day Israel and gradually push out the residing Palestinian Arabs. There are early references to the settlement of European Jews of the First Aliyah between 1881 and 1903 to Ottoman Syria. These people were traditional Jews not necessarily interested in Zionism. It’s important to note that Zionism and Judaism are not equivalent.
According to Wikipedia, the Zionist movement is thought to have originated with Theodor Hertzl in 1897. Even before, there were Jewish villages established in Palestine, ibid. He was an Austro-Hungarian journalist and Jew who promoted immigration to Palestine for the purpose of establishing a homeland. The link gives some good background.
The formal establishment of the Israeli state from the Israeli side is well documented and is left for the reader to access. Palestinians refer to this as the Nakba, or “catastrophe”.
It seems well documented that the establishment of the state of Israel was a systematic movement to form a Jewish homeland- Zionism. This process inevitably involved the forced displacement of Palestinian Arabs from what was greater Palestine and into smaller reservations for the displaced- Gaza and the West Bank. The West Bank is being slowly but vigorously absorbed by Israeli settlers.
It will be impossible for the Palestinians to just roll over and forgive and forget. Much has to heal. Gaza has been called an apartheid concentration camp to contain and control the Palestinians and I cannot see why this is an exaggeration. The brutal Israeli reprisal on Hamas and civilian Gazans after the October 7th attack by Hamas will extend the conflict. This is driven by the Netanyahu political movement.
How can I, an American with no interest in any of the Abrahamic religions possibly know about this? Hey man, I’m tryin’. Obviously this thing has to settle down and casualties on both sides stop, just nobody knows how to make it happen. The incessant and violent meddling by Iran is inflammatory and has to be suppressed. Their interest is in sowing chaos is unrelenting and dangerous.
The state of Israel will not shut down for any reason and leave the Levant. They are there for good. To Islamic extremists, this means that all they can do is kill all of the Israelis and share the misery. It’s like two guys standing in gasoline and each threatening to light a match. This will take some realpolitik over decades on both sides to solve. Pure ideology will lead nowhere.
Unwavering American government allegiance to the state of Israel, in public at least, and the influence of AIPAC must be pushed aside to provide effective, balanced and trusted leadership in the region. Many US states have already passed laws banning the criticism of Israel or its businesses. This type of statutory tribalism is not helpful and must stop. Reflexive opposition to the Palestinians leads only to the next 100 year’s war.
Biased US leadership in the Middle East only fuels continuous conflict and strengthens the proxy war of Iran against the US. Our steadfast bias should be for a negotiated peace. There is substantial support for Israel by American Evangelical Protestant Christian nationalists whose religious beliefs require strong support for the state of Israel. It is a part of their Calvinistic dominionism theology and the return of the Messiah. This is the third leg of a serious religious conflict. Israelis understand this interference by the pesky Christian chicken coop across the Atlantic, but they need the eggs.
Back in graduate school we had a postdoc in the group who was a chemistry professor on a 1-year sabbatical from the Beijing Normal School in China. He was a great guy, but like most professors, a bit rusty in the lab. One day a few of us were exchanging our respective backgrounds. When my turn came around I mentioned that as a child I grew up on an Iowa farm where we raised the usual spectrum of crops and livestock- Corn, soybeans, hogs, cattle, sheep, a couple of horses and 5 kids. He looked at me for a moment and then said “Ah, peasant!”
I was startled for a moment because I had never considered this description before. I had always thought of peasant as mildly derisive, but as I thought about it, he was exactly right. Our income was low and we subsisted on what we could grow and sell. We always had home grown beef and pork in the meat locker in town and apples, walnuts and canned veggies in the cellar. Summer evenings we would go to the lake, eat fresh watermelon while swatting the mosquitos and do a bit of fishing for bullheads. It was ordinary rural life like millions of others had. I was a young peasant boy.
Well, so what? As I watch Trump’s festering MAGA movement infect its way across the US and begin to spread and flex its muscles, I’ve been looking for the right words to describe it. For me, finding the right words for something has always been at the entrance to the path of understanding. Last night I finally found the right description- Peasant Uprising.
The electronic media tends to focus on MAGA people wearing their uber-patriotic apparel. My inner snark keeps whispering that they may not be on the higher end of the bell curve as far as smarts go. Many are attracted to QAnon and its bulging pantry of wacky conspiracy theories. It is easy to be lazy and make sweeping generalizations about idiocy, ignorance or stupidity. To be sure, there are highly educated people who are also aligned with Trump’s MAGA handwaving. Some may actually believe the conspiracy theories but others are just surfing the populist wave.
Throughout European history there are instances of peasant folk, serfs and artisans rallying together to put an end to the rigid control of landlords and upper echelons of society that keep them in poverty. Violence would often erupt and the rebellion would be put down or some compromise would arise. It didn’t always end well for the peasant class.
I’m not suggesting that what has evolved in the US since WWII is the same. But what has happened in the US is that the opportunity to accumulate wealth today remains out of reach for a large fraction of citizens. Tens of millions of citizens are living paycheck to paycheck with debt piled high, assuming they could get the credit to get that way. Inflation has pushed up prices across the board irrespective of whether or not business expenses actually rose in proportion to the inflation rate. An inflationary period is a great opportunity to raise prices because customers will go along with it. Prices are always what the customer is willing to pay.
What I am suggesting is that there is a large fraction of the population in the US who have been passed by as ever advancing technology is improving our way of life. This has created previously unheard-of job opportunities but only for those with the right education. Organizations have required 4-year degrees or 2-5 years of experience in the field. A degree may or may not have educated the applicant in the particular field, but it does provide a credible credential that an applicant can start a challenging task and complete it over set timespan. I would say that this credential is nearly as important as the knowledge gained in college in judging the fortitude and character of an applicant. Obviously there are exceptions.
Many people find themselves stranded in modernity without sufficiently strong credentials to advance with the times. Anyone over 25 might face the prospect of enrolling in college to get the right credentials for a new profession or just to advance. This is difficult for most people to pull off. Children and debt can totally shut down this option for them. My guess is that a great many of Trump’s MAGA followers fit this description. Thus the comparison with a peasant uprising.
The MAGA movement may remain mostly bloodless or not. They represent a large group of angry and dissatisfied people who have an extremely varied level of understanding of civics. Many hold unfounded beliefs that are nothing more than boat anchors holding them back.
Libertarian utopianism suggests that everyone has the option of starting their own business. Some can do this, but most will find themselves under-capitalized and with no properly zoned facility in which to work. Yes, some people do get by making burritos and cupcakes in their kitchens or doing handyman work. But the market is limited for these services. The reality of rent/mortgages and health insurance make the cash flow requirements difficult to meet.
As a former peasant boy, this is what I’m observing.
Former president #45 has proclaimed on his Truth Social post of 11/18/23 that 2024 will be” the final battle.” Below is a quote from him while in Iowa-
“2024 is our final battle. With you at my side, we will demolish the Deep State, we will expel the warmongers from our government, we will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the Communists, Marxists, and Fascists, we will throw off the sick political class that hates our Country, we will rout the Fake News Media, we will evict Joe Biden from the White House, and we will FINISH THE JOB ONCE AND FOR ALL! ia.donaldjtrump.com/,” Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday.
Many questions come to mind. Who is this political class that hates America? He continues to infer that liberals hate America, but where are these people? The people who hate the US are mostly elsewhere in the world.
What about his claim that he will cast out the Communists, Marxists and Fascists. Communism is practiced by China in some despotic form, but most of the world is free from the threat of communism. Marxism? Oh please. C’mon Donald, name 5 American Marxists. Marxism is long dead. The Soviets abandoned it and communism when the USSR collapsed in the early 1990’s. And fascism? Does he understand what fascism is? It doesn’t sound like it. Fascism is ultranationalism and who arms themselves to the teeth and parades around draped in the stars & stripes or the Confederate battle flag? It ain’t liberals.
The “Fake News Media”? #45 should be nicer to these people. They’ve given him half a billion dollars in free publicity since 2016. It’s helped the Democrats somewhat, but the media has been quite uncritical in their decisions on televising his rolling freakshow. His bombastic bellowing and verbal assaults make him a sure bet for good viewer numbers. He is a completely noxious human being but that makes him worth televising for ratings. The continuous reporting of his words and actions simply validates to his followers that he’s the right man to make Washington, DC, work right.
Many American conservatives are under the spell of #45 and are probably irretrievable. These people will have to live out their natural lives and go to the grave as Trump supporters. If you listen to them they are cock sure that Trump speaks the truth. But the fact is that the Republican party gets the most donations and most support from the people who have the money. And, right now that money is funneling into groups that support Trump because he has the numbers.
What doesn’t help America is that most of the fundamentalist, protestant Christian nationalists in the US can support Trump for religious reasons. They believe that somehow, despite his worldly troubles, he is the one who will spur on the prophesied return of Christ- the Second Coming. They believe that “the apocalypse” will happen in Israel and soon. Christian nationalists are eager to support Israel for reasons like this. Their end-of-the-world theology involves support for Israel.
The problem with Christian nationalism is that it stems from an apocalyptic religion. Why should anyone entrust them to govern America when they believe that the end is near? I’ve been watching this develop since the late 1970’s and especially into the 1980’s during the Reagan years and the rise of the Moral Majority. It was a chimera of orthodox Republicanism and protestant conservative evangelical organizations. The Southern Baptist Convention, in particular. This is a political force having its way in America presently. They are eating the elephant one bite at a time.
For myself, the fundamental theorem of Americanism is democracy, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Conservatives are beginning to discount the practice of democracy because they find it does not seem to provide a path to their utopian vision for America. Democracy is messy and allows for a broad spectrum of ideas and practices. A theocratic and libertarian world is a place where the control of civilization and power belongs to the wealthy and righteous. It is theocratic and controlled by a few. This is a regression to the closing decades of the American 19th century when industrial barons held sway.
In conclusion, this Republican Christian nationalism must be defeated or encouraged to die on the vine. Christianity or any other religion are not about democracy. The Republican party is showing little interest in democracy. They have learned that they cannot have their way just through elections. They are at work chipping away at our democratic institutions. Democracy must be preserved. The airwaves, churches and congress are full of doomsayers claiming that America is in a crisis and that only conservative Christian values can make it better. The spell of apocalyptic politics must be broken.
There is an old saying that goes “necessity is the mother of invention.” Its meaning is obvious. It says that when you run into a problem, you can invent your way around it. Or at least try to. The other solution to a problem is simply to live with it.
I recall that during the Apollo project in the late 1960’s, many conservatives would complain about the cost of going to the moon. Social progressives likewise made a complaint that was directed at shifting those NASA funds to social programs here on earth. Technology progressives would retort that it is worth it because of all of the spin-offs that were appearing out of the effort. The reply to this was that if you wanted some shiny new widget, just invent it. You don’t have to go to the moon.
Presently I can look back at the two major research domains, academic and industrial, and make comparisons. In academia, a professor’s work product is split between research, teaching and service to the school. Research is commonly measured by the number of papers published, especially in the prestigious journals. In some institutions, patenting is also taken into account. As for teaching, there are student evaluations and performance reviews by the department chair or the dean. This includes past performance in committees. A motivation in the first few years is to get tenure. Academic research includes putting research results in the public literature for all to use.
In business there is “technology push” or “market pull.” Technology push means that you want a market to grow around your product or service. It will require some customers to be early adopters of first-generation product. Not everyone is eager to do this. Market pull, by contrast, means entering an existing market with your particular version of a product. Price and service are especially important in known-product sales.
So, what about the mother of invention? Generally, in chemistry an invention comes from some kind of investigative activity, curiosity or need. Sometimes you may want to invent around an active patent rather than go into a licensing agreement.
The US patent office allows only one invention per application. If you choose, you can lop off your other invention and file it separately as a divisional patent. You would do this because the patent examiner will have raised an objection to your original filing. Doing a divisional filing allows you to use content from the first, or parent, patent application and you get the filing date of the parent as well. Early filing dates are very important.
Sometimes patents are written very narrowly and leave “white space” or potential claims around them. This is not always desirable so the matter can be solved by the use of “picket fence patents.” You patent your core art as broadly as the patent office will allow, then you file for patents that cover related art that a competitor could conceivably patent that would allow them to compete against you. By raising the cost of entry into your market or narrowing the scope of new art, you can dissuade competitors from entry or at least make them pay a heavy price for it. Who knows, maybe they’ll decide to buy a license from you or even an entire patent. An argument against picket fence patenting is that patents can be very expensive.
Academic research has a high reliance on external funding. This requires that the funding organization recognizes the novelty and p[otential intellectual value of the research proposal. Industrial research has a high reliance on market potential of an invention. What is the breakeven time and sales potential of the invention? Will demand last long enough for the invention to provide a healthy return on investment?
Academics can and do patent their work on occasion, especially if the university pays for it. The thing I object to is that a great deal of research is paid for by the taxpayers. We pay for the research and then it gets patented and its use is restricted for 20 years. Maybe taxpayers (businesses) can enter into a licensing agreement, but maybe someone else has bought exclusive rights. Licenses can be somewhere between reasonable to absurdly restrictive, depending on the terms of the agreement. Many will want to add an extra fee based on the sales income of the product. This means that there will be an annual audit with pencil neck auditors poking around your business. It’s like having a ferret in your shorts. Avoid if at all possible.
But, many companies leverage their output through licensing agreements of technology they have no interest in developing.
Industrial research is quite different in terms of administration of the endeavor. Industrial chemists are supervised by an R&D director and use in-house technology and science and/or what they learned in college, but here the results are aimed at producing something for sale or improving the profit margin of a process. There is no desire to share information. Industrial research produces in-house expertise as well as, hopefully, patentable inventions. Industrial invention can be driven by competition in existing markets or by expansion into something entirely new. Often it is to provide continuous margin growth if market expansion is slow.
The argument can be made to keep everything as a trade secret. Publishing your art in the patent literature can help competitors have their own brainstorms about the subject, or some may even be tempted to infringe on your art that is carefully laid out in front of their eyes. Competitors may be cued into a new product’s capabilities and gives insight into new products.
Both academic and industrial chemists invent. The difference is that in industry some inventions or art are held in trade secrecy, even if they never get commercialized. Academic researchers can and do keep secrets when they are aiming for a patent, at least until the patent is granted. Compartmentalization in a research group is critical, since disputes about inventorship can kill a patent. Once issued, academics will publish as many papers about the patented art as possible. Commonly, patents are assigned to whoever pays for it- usually an organization. An academic patent is assigned to the inventor’s institution while in industry the company is the assignee. In both cases the inventor is usually awarded only a token of appreciation and the “satisfaction” of having a patent.
So, what about “necessity is the mother of invention”? There are some inventive projects that are too large or risky for a business or even a consortium of businesses to handle. I’m thinking of the Apollo Moon Landing program. The project required the resources of a government. A great deal of invention by many players allowed the moon landing to happen. The necessity for all of this invention was that the US government set a goal and farmed out thousands of contracts with vendors to make it happen. Much wealth was spread around into the coffers of industry, but with contracts having stringent specifications for man-rated spaceflight and tight timelines to be met.
That’s one of the values of having a government like we had in the 1960’s. They created the necessity and private industry made it happen. Despite the cultural upset of the 1960’s and the Viet Nam war, the Apollo Project worked. No astronauts died in space. This necessity/invention pressure does work.
According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, the current wave of oil refining capacity growth is likely to be the last of it. IEA is forecasting that beyond 2030 global refining capacity growth will begin to recede. The latest World Outlook Report forecasts that global capacity will see 105.2 million b/d and by 2050 growth be tapering off to 105.8 million b/d. This is from 102.7 million b/d in 2022.
Remember, this is receding growth overall, not receding consumption overall. IEA expects North America to see reducing refinery capacity on the order of 1.4 % between 2022 and 2030. To meet emission reduction goals, North American capacity will have to reduce by 7.5 % from 2022 to 2030. By contrast, under current policies India is expected to see an increase in refining capacity from 7.2 to 7.5 milling b/d by 2050.
The Age of Petroleum is approaching a production plateau as the oxidation of hydrocarbons gives way to harnessing the reduction potential of metallic lithium. Oh, what a time we’ll have! Think of all of the new failure modes we’ll discover.
Lamentations on Chemistry 
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